no photos cause im in a rush...
I'm taking the Heat in 7. Why? Because I think the Heat with the resurgence of Haslem and Miller finally have a unit in the last 6 minutes of the 2nd quarter and 4th quarter to close out. The problem with the Heat all season has been the inability to get 5 people on the floor at once who have to be defended. That unit is also rebounding. The Bulls in my opinion have a better defense than the Mavs, yet, the Heat were able to execute in the half-court when they needed to even with a lackluster Dwayne Wade for 3 games.
Now, the Mavs are a different story. They have the best team offense in the NBA. Watching them against OKC, who many considered to have the most offensive firepower in the playoffs, was a joke. OKC, like Miami, is a team the depends heavily on isolation. The problem for the Thunder was that Durant was aggressive for two games and part of game 4. The rest of the time, he didn't actively come to the ball. A lot of people blame Westbrook, but I saw a very stagnant offense that didn't move and Westbrook was forced to go one on one many times. The Mavs did a great job controlling the paint, closing out, and keeping Westbrook out of the paint although he did get them in transition.
The Mavs offense is very reminiscent of the old Adelman Kings or Trailblazers. Not that they play Princeton, but I have never seen a team move the ball as well and as much. There's almost no dribbling and picture perfect basketball. They are very difficult to defend because the offensive angles are constantly changing and defenders get caught in the wrong positions. OKC also allowed Dirk to go one on one with Ibaka and Collison, which is what the Heat should do with Haslem or Bosh on Dirk. Play him one on one, don't foul and let him get his buckets. But, do NOT leave Terry, Kidd, or Marion and make sure to box out Chandler.
I am taking the Heat because I think they are capable of turning Dallas into an isolation team, which is not their strength. They are not going to win on Dirk's back, their strength is team basketball. The Heat's biggest weakness is in the paint and at PG. Joel Anthony is giving it his all, but Tyson Chandler will have his way. That said, the Mavs are a much less aggressive front line and Bosh should have more success on the glass. Miller/Haslem should also be able to get boards and make up for Chandler's advantage over Anthony.
The one guy who I think will light the Heat up is Jose Juan Barea. He's the one guy on the Mavs that the Heat just can't match up with. I'm guessing that Carlisle will deploy him when Wade is on the bench and they are forced to play Chalmers/Bibby. The difference is going to become, can Terry/Barea get the Mavs such a cushion at the beginning of the 2nd and 4th quarters that Bron/Wade/Bosh can't make up for in the end of the 2nd and 4th?
We know that Wade, Bron, Bosh, Nowitzki, Terry are going to get theirs. The question comes down to the Bareas, Stevensons, Haslems and Millers of the world. First bench player to 15 probably wins it for his team each night. I think that Haslem/Miller/Bibby/Chalmers will get the Heat just enough (25 to 30 a game) to win because the Mavs can't match up one on one with the big 3. Kidd will do his best and limit Wade, but Terry is their second best offensive player and he's gonna get lit up defensively. There is no one in the world who can guard Bron and Bosh will keep it close enough with Nowitzki because Dirk actually plays into some of Bosh's strengths by being more of a perimeter player. Keep the Mavs under 100, keep Dirk under 28, Heat win.